Ligue 1+ is wavering, and all of French football is holding its breath. While the LFP OTT no longer communicates about its subscribers, the confidences of Romain Molina sound like a red alert: the platform would show a slight erosion, against a backdrop of TV revenues falling by 55 to 60% compared to previous cycles. In this context, the DNCG is toughening its stance, and several already fragile clubs are walking a tightrope. In Toulouse, the strategic preparation of the TFC is accelerating to keep pace with a championship still searching for its model.
Who is at the heart of the turmoil? The LFP, its clubs, and the TV rights ecosystem. What is sticking? The monetization of Ligue 1+ and the visibility of revenues until 2027. Where is it playing out? In France, from LFP offices to club meeting rooms. When? Now, as a crucial season opens. How? Through crisis management combining budget cuts, targeted sales, and diversification. Why? Because after the DAZN failure, the path to digital autonomy is tougher than expected. In this battle, Toulouse moves forward methodically, while others falter.
Ligue 1+ in crisis: confessions of Romain Molina and systemic challenges
Romain Molina points out a simple fact: the Ligue 1+ OTT no longer publishes its subscriber numbers. According to his analysis, the last few months have seen a slight decline, a sign of a ceiling reached after the curiosity effect. This dip occurs while clubs receive far less than expected from TV rights, a shortfall estimated at 55 to 60% compared to past benchmarks.
The timing is worrying. By 2027, the reshaping of the audiovisual market demands guarantees that the LFP will have to document. In the meantime, the DNCG is tightening the screws: after Lyon or Le Havre were recently flagged, other files are becoming complicated. Over-indebted teams or those too dependent on sales will face immediate pressure.
Beyond the financial signal, the emotion is palpable: fans, employees, and shareholders fear the domino effect. Technically, the OTT model remains defensible, but it requires transparency, controlled churn, and premium content. Without this, the budget duel is lost even before the transfer window.
What the numbers say: TV revenues, DNCG, and the 2027 horizon
Key data outlines a tight trajectory. First, unit TV revenues are declining for an average club. Then, medium-term visibility is lacking, complicating planning. Finally, the DNCG now requires credible trajectories without fictitious revenues.
| Indicator | Before | Today | 2027 Challenge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average club TV revenues (order of magnitude) | ~25–30 M€ | ~10–14 M€ | Stabilize >15 M€ |
| Player sales share of budget | 15–20% | 30–40% | Bring back to < 25% |
| OTT subscriber communication | Published | Infrequent | Quarterly |
| DNCG requirements | Flexible | Strengthened | Firm guarantees |
This framework is not theoretical. It conditions transfer decisions, salaries, and training. From then on, each club must build plans A, B, and C.
Strategic preparation of TFC facing the economic challenge
In Toulouse, the strategic preparation is built around clear principles: cost control, asset valorization, and data serving recruitment. The club knows that every euro will count if Ligue 1+ plateaus. The goal: remain competitive without slipping.
Concretely, the Violets segment their season with different DNCG management scenarios. If TV rights disappoint, plan B is triggered: targeted sales, resale bonuses, and optimized playing time for high-value youngsters.
- Modular budget: three envelopes linked to TV cash flow.
- Data-driven recruitment: U23 profiles with high growth potential.
- Training: acceleration of local minutes in rotation.
- Ticketing and hospitality: dynamic pricing at the Stadium.
- Partnerships: packaged B2B offers and local activation.
This plan aims for sporting and financial balance. It prepares sales without sacrificing play.
Field and transfer window: technical trade-offs on Toulouse’s side
On the field, the idea is to increase asset value. Coordinated pressing, aggressive corridors, and versatile profiles create favorable data. Young players are introduced in protective contexts, with experienced leaders to set the pace.
In the transfer window, targeted profiles have contained salaries, controlled clauses, and plausible resale. Loans with options to buy and creative deals reduce risk exposure. Sportively, the team remains readable: clear principles, repeated executions, and tactical margins according to the opponent.
For fans, a course remains clear. For the DNCG, guarantees are being built.
To deepen reflection on financial balances, several investigative contents shed light on market trends and governance.
Analysis: how Ligue 1 can manage the crisis and protect its clubs
Crisis management is not just about cutting. It imposes rebuilding trust around Ligue 1+. Quarterly subscriber reporting, an anti-churn plan, family pack offers, and free showcase matches can revive attractiveness.
Then, the LFP would benefit from pooling key sponsors, while giving clubs local freedom. A more predictable revenue sharing, backed by a salary control plan, would reduce volatility. Moreover, a denser OTT editorial schedule (docu-series, inside, archives) would increase perceived value.
Finally, the ecosystem must speak with one voice. Clubs, LFP, and digital broadcaster must publish a 2026–2027 trajectory. Credibility is measured by the milestones met.
Case studies: Lyon, Reims, Le Havre, the weak signal turned strong
The signals add up. Lyon has already faced DNCG restrictions. Le Havre has revised its ambitions. Reims monitors its wage bill against a less guaranteed revenue base. All illustrate the same dynamic: without visibility, risk rises for squads and cash flow.
This is not fate. A policy of early sales, intelligent clauses, and clear communication with shareholders and fans calms the climate. Experience shows anticipation costs less than urgency.
The real turning point: regaining a stable framework before 2027, to stop flying blind.
Key markers and scenarios 2026–2027
To navigate, some markers are necessary. They illuminate leadership decisions and fans’ reading. They also mark the path of Ligue 1+ toward durable stabilization.
- OTT breakeven point: aim for a stable subscriber base with controlled churn.
- TV share of budget: do not exceed 35% to avoid dependence.
- Player sales: plan sales before summer, not in a rush.
- Wage bills: partial indexing on actual revenues.
- Transparency: quarterly public reporting to reassure the market.
These markers reduce uncertainty and return control to the field.
To go further
Official documents and independent analyses clarify the context. The LFP publishes its news and decisions: lfp.fr. For the Toulouse club, institutional information can be found here: toulousefc.com. These resources complement the public confidences and the analysis conducted in these columns.
Is Ligue 1+ really declining in subscribers?
According to the confidences relayed by Romain Molina, a slight decline has been recently observed. However, the lack of regular communication from the platform maintains the uncertainty, hence the necessity of quarterly reporting to stabilize market perception.
Why is the DNCG becoming stricter?
The contraction of TV rights forces clubs to present budgets without fictitious revenues. The DNCG therefore strengthens its requirements regarding treasury, guarantees, and credible multi-year trajectories.
How is the TFC preparing for the economic challenge?
Toulouse activates a modular plan: budget in steps, data-driven recruitment, highlighting young players, optimized ticketing, and strengthened partnerships. The goal is to remain competitive while managing risks.
What avenues exist to revive the value of Ligue 1?
Transparency of OTT figures, premium content, better segmented commercial offers, pooling of key sponsors, and a more predictable salary framework. Together, these must create a stable revenue flow by 2027.
Can clubs get by without significant sales?
Yes, if costs are adjusted, ticketing improves, and partnerships widen. However, most will remain dependent on targeted sales as long as TV rights do not recover.